3 Numbers That Could Push Tesla's Stock Higher This Week

Tesla releases third-quarter delivery figures on October 2, with analyst estimates ranging from 421,758 to 482,000 units. The wide forecast spread follows a second-quarter miss where TSLA delivered roughly 60,000 fewer vehicles than consensus expected, setting up a potential beat this time.

Model Y and Model 3 deliveries will carry the report—those two vehicles account for over 90% of Tesla's automotive sales. Any meaningful variance from the 421,000 to 482,000 estimate band will likely come from these models.

Two additional metrics are in play: the Tesla Semi delivery ramp and possible Cybercab robotaxi deliveries to external customers. The source notes the latter is unlikely this quarter, but any unexpected progress would be material.

The October 2 release gives traders a binary event with defined ranges. A print above 482,000 could drive upside momentum; a miss below 421,758 risks extending the weakness from last quarter's shortfall.