34.5% of SpaceX's Revenue Could Disappear by Mid-2027

SpaceX (SPCX) faces a concentration problem: one customer, Anthropic, accounts for 34.5% of total revenue, and that revenue could vanish as early as mid-2027.

The exposure sits in SpaceX's AI compute business, which has grown to more than 50% of sales and now serves as the company's largest revenue driver. That makes the Anthropic relationship the single most important line item in the revenue base. Per the source, the contracts carry a cancellation clause: starting in early 2027, either party can terminate with just 90 days' notice.

The source identifies two pressures that could push Anthropic out the door. The compute supply shortage is easing, which reduces the scarcity that gives SpaceX pricing and retention leverage. At the same time, competitors are developing alternative solutions, giving Anthropic options it may not have today.

Interpretation: a 90-day exit window on more than a third of revenue converts a growth story into a binary risk. If compute supply normalizes and rivals deliver alternatives, SpaceX has little contractual protection. The more than 50% share of sales from AI compute means the loss would hit the core of the business, not a peripheral segment. Any valuation that capitalizes current AI compute revenue as durable is exposed to that clause.