4 Reasons American Express Stock Is Having Its Worst Year Since 2015 Despite Record Earnings

AXP is down 15.3% year-to-date, its worst year since 2015, even after the company posted record earnings and raised full-year guidance. That disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the story.

The source points to four pressure points:

1. Valuation reset. AXP is pulling back after a decade-long surge. 2. Margin compression. Gross margins are declining as customer reward expenses rise. 3. Consumer worries. Concerns about spending weakness amid economic headwinds are weighing on sentiment. 4. AI cost uncertainty. Investors are unsure what the company's AI investments will ultimately cost.

Despite the slide, AXP now trades at 17.8x earnings, which the source characterizes as cheap. The bull case rests on the company's strong fundamentals and its positioning in agentic commerce.

Interpretation: a record-earnings, raised-guidance company still getting sold suggests the market is pricing forward risk to margins and consumer health rather than reacting to backward-looking results. The reward-expense trend is the most concrete of the four concerns, since it directly hits profitability.

The source frames the setup as a potential long-term buying opportunity, though the drivers behind the drawdown remain unresolved.