After Soaring Nearly 90% Thus Far in 2026, Is Moderna's Stock Still a Buy?

Moderna (MRNA) has rallied nearly 90% year-to-date in 2026, sparked by FDA approval news in June for its flu vaccine mRNA-1010. But the fundamentals don't support the move, according to a Motley Fool analysis questioning the sustainability of the surge.

The flu vaccine is projected to generate just $1 billion in revenue by 2028—a modest figure for a company carrying a market cap above $20 billion. Meanwhile, Moderna posted $3.4 billion in operating losses over the trailing 12 months, with revenue declining as COVID vaccine sales fade. The company remains heavily dependent on its pandemic-era product with few near-term catalysts to offset the drop.

Beyond mRNA-1010, Moderna's pipeline centers on the experimental cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, but no commercialization timeline or revenue guidance has been established. The Motley Fool argues the current valuation prices in growth that isn't materializing, leaving the stock overvalued relative to its risk profile.