ASML is the Most Important Company in the AI Ecosystem, and It Just Delivered Record Results. Here’s Where the Stock Will Be in 2028

ASML (ASML) posted record Q3 2026 results, with revenue up 56% year over year and expanded margins, and raised its full-year guidance.

The company is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, which are critical for AI chip production. ASML expects demand to outpace supply through 2028, a stance that gives the order book visibility well beyond the current guidance year.

The long-range bull case is aggressive. Analysts project ASML could reach $2,827 by 2028, implying 72% upside, but that figure rests on two assumptions: earnings growing 45% annually and the company holding its current valuation multiple. Interpretation: the upside depends as much on multiple stability as on execution. If earnings growth slows or the market reprices the multiple lower, the projection compresses quickly.

The guidance raise and the supply-constrained demand outlook sit squarely in the AI hardware chain. TSM and INTC operate in the same chip-production ecosystem, so ASML's tone on demand through 2028 is relevant read-through for both, though the source ties the specific figures only to ASML.