Bitcoin Has Fallen 50% From Its Peak. History Points to What Comes Next.

Bitcoin has dropped 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,128, tracking the established four-year halving cycle pattern that has governed prior drawdowns. The decline marks a familiar retracement from all-time highs, with historical precedent suggesting a 2-3 year recovery window before the next bull phase takes hold.

The April 2028 halving represents the next potential inflection point for BTC price action. Past cycles show Bitcoin typically bottoms 12-18 months after peak euphoria, then consolidates before the supply shock of halving—when miner rewards are cut in half—reignites demand dynamics.

Market structure has shifted since prior cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 have drawn sustained institutional capital, reducing volatility compared to retail-driven rallies. Regulatory clarity and miners pivoting to AI computing contracts for revenue diversification are further blurring the line between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets, potentially dampening the magnitude of both drawdowns and rallies going forward.