Can SpaceX Overcome the AI Trade Sell-Off?

SpaceX (SPCX) posted AI revenue of $7.6 billion in Q3, up 830%, yet the stock still trades 5% below its IPO price.

The AI segment now makes up 52% of total revenue, a dramatic mix shift for the company. Starlink and space launch businesses also show solid growth, but the market is fixating on spending rather than sales.

The sticking point is capital expenditure. SPCX spent $19.6 billion in the quarter, with 83% allocated to AI. That works out to roughly $16.3 billion directed at AI infrastructure in a single quarter, more than double the $7.6 billion in AI revenue it generated.

Investors are skeptical that those outlays will pay off over the long term. SPCX is also caught in a broader market debate over whether tech companies are spending efficiently on AI, which has weighed on the group.

Interpretation: the 830% growth rate is impressive, but the gap between AI spending and AI revenue explains why the stock hasn't been rewarded. Shares sitting below the IPO price suggests buyers want evidence of returns, not just top-line acceleration.