Centrus Is Down 69% From Its High. Is Its $4.5 Billion Backlog Enough to Buy at $143?

LEU has fallen 69% from its October 2025 high of $464.25 to $143, even with a $4.5 billion backlog on the books.

The bull case rests on two points from the source: nuclear demand is growing, and Centrus Energy is the only U.S. public producer of HALEU fuel. That backlog is large relative to the current valuation, which explains why dip buyers keep circling the name.

The bear case is more concrete. Revenue is expected to decline through 2028. Most backlog orders won't convert to revenue until the late 2020s, so the $4.5 billion figure describes future potential rather than near-term earnings. Capital-intensive expansion plans will also pressure earnings along the way.

Valuation compounds the problem. At 50x forward earnings, LEU still trades at a rich multiple after a 69% drawdown. Interpretation: the market is paying a premium for long-dated backlog conversion while the next few years show shrinking revenue, a gap that leaves little cushion if execution slips. The source also flags a lack of near-term catalysts, which removes an obvious trigger for a rerating.