Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA Steady After Hitting a Record Closing High

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record 52,300 on Monday, propelled by Alphabet's nearly 5% surge in its debut as a Dow component. U.S. futures signal a flat open Tuesday as the month and quarter wrap.

Markets are pricing in a 60% probability the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, keeping pressure on risk assets. The dollar remains firm on expectations of continued Fed tightening, while oil prices tumbled 20% in June amid progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Alphabet's addition to the Dow—replacing a previous component—immediately demonstrated its weight in the 30-stock index, with the tech giant's rally single-handedly lifting the benchmark to new highs. The quarter-end rebalancing comes as traders recalibrate positions around the Fed's hawkish stance and softer commodity prices.