Elon Musk's SpaceX Reports Its Second-Quarter Results Today, but the Real Fireworks Begin on Aug. 6

SpaceX reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4, 2026, with Wall Street analysts projecting revenue of $6.82 billion and a loss of $0.29 per share. The company faces a more significant catalyst two days later: on Aug. 6, insider lockup restrictions expire on 20% of SpaceX shares, freeing executives and early investors to sell.

The lockup expiration poses material downside risk. SpaceX floated less than 5% of outstanding shares at its initial public offering, meaning the Aug. 6 unlock could more than quadruple the tradable float overnight. Secondary offerings and insider selling typically pressure share prices, particularly when the newly available supply dwarfs the existing public float.

The timing compounds the risk. If earnings disappoint on Aug. 4—whether on the projected loss, revenue miss, or weak forward guidance—shares could enter the lockup expiration already under pressure, amplifying selling from insiders looking to monetize holdings.