Energy Transfer Just Raised Its 2026 Guidance. Is the Stock Still a Buy?

Energy Transfer (ET) boosted its 2026 EBITDA guidance by $500 million to a range of $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion, building on second-quarter momentum that pushed distributable cash flow up 32% year-over-year. The company raised its dividend for the 19th consecutive quarter and now trades at 9.7x enterprise value to EBITDA, a modest valuation despite ongoing infrastructure expansion tied to AI data center demand and natural gas export capacity.

The guidance lift follows strong operational performance across ET's midstream network. The company is positioning to capture volume growth from two high-demand end markets: liquefied natural gas terminals and power-hungry artificial intelligence facilities requiring natural gas-fired generation.

Natural gas prices present a near-term headwind. The commodity has fallen 29% since January, threatening volume growth if the decline persists. Lower prices can dampen drilling activity and reduce throughput across ET's gathering and processing assets, though export demand and data center build-out may partially offset the drag.