Estimates Keep Rising as Q3 Earnings Season Takes Center Stage

Q3 earnings season is off and running, and the early scorecard is strong: 78.9% of the 19 companies that have reported beat EPS estimates, according to Zacks Investment Research. The catch is that the tally leans heavily on Micron (MU), whose exceptional results skew the aggregate.

Looking at the full index, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 24.3% year over year. Estimate revisions are positive across 7 of 16 sectors, so upward momentum is real but not universal; more than half of sectors are not seeing upgrades.

Banks take center stage as JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C) report alongside others. The setup carries a headwind: rising Treasury yields are pressuring net interest margins and deal flow. Interpretation: a strong headline growth rate does not guarantee that financials will share in the upside, and the yield backdrop could cap bank results even if broader earnings stay healthy.

The early beat rate also deserves caution. With only 19 reporters and MU doing outsized work, 78.9% is a thin sample, not a verdict on the season. Interpretation: a few more reports without MU-style outliers will say more about breadth than the current number does.