Fed meeting live updates: No hike expected, but all eyes on Warsh for what's next

Markets are pricing in less than a 10% chance that the Federal Reserve follows its September quarter-point hike with another increase at Wednesday's FOMC decision. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, even with inflation tracking well above target.

The low odds of a second hike leave little room for a surprise at the decision itself. Traders have already positioned for an on-hold outcome, which shifts the market's attention from the rate call to what comes after it.

That is where Warsh enters the picture. CNBC's live coverage frames the meeting around Warsh and what he signals for the policy path ahead. The headline focus on "what's next" points to forward guidance, not the hold itself, as the potential volatility trigger.

Interpretation: with a September hike already delivered and under 10% odds priced for another, the market has effectively built in a pause. A hold paired with language that keeps further tightening open could tighten financial conditions without a single rate change. A hold paired with softer language could push the other way. The gap between inflation running well above target and a Fed on hold is the tension traders will be testing in the statement and press conference.