Goldman’s Kaplan Says Fed May Hike by Fall, Sees Risk of More

The Federal Reserve may need to resume rate hikes by September if inflation stays elevated, according to Rob Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and former Dallas Federal Reserve president. Kaplan's timeline puts a potential policy reversal just months away, even as markets have priced in rate cuts through 2025.

Kaplan, who led the Dallas Fed through the pandemic recovery, warned that persistent inflation could force the central bank to tighten again after pausing its hiking cycle. His comments add to a growing chorus of Wall Street voices questioning the Fed's ability to hold rates steady if price pressures resurface. Goldman Sachs has been among the more hawkish institutions on the Street, with its economists previously forecasting a higher-for-longer rate environment.

The September timing is significant—it aligns with the Fed's typically consequential fall meetings when policymakers often make major pivots. Kaplan's position at Goldman gives his view added weight among institutional traders who use the firm's research to position portfolios. Any shift toward tightening would pressure duration trades and benefit short-term Treasury yields.