If There Was Ever a Reason to Avoid the Anthropic IPO, This Is It

Anthropic filed for its IPO on October 26, 2026, with a potential valuation exceeding SpaceX's record $85.7 billion raise, according to The Motley Fool. The same report urges retail investors to stay away, citing an unusually aggressive insider lockup structure.

The core concern: 23 separate unlock events. That schedule includes insider share sales on the first trading day after the debut. Interpretation: when insiders can sell from day one, new public buyers face supply pressure at the exact moment demand is supposed to peak. A staggered 23-step release also means overhang risk could recur repeatedly rather than clearing in a single event.

History adds weight to the caution. The article cites data showing 57% of major tech IPOs since 2012 declined within 12 months. Those that fell posted an average maximum drawdown of 55%. Interpretation: even a hot, record-scale offering sits in a category where more than half of comparable deals lost ground, and where losers lost deeply.

The SpaceX (SPCX) comparison matters as a benchmark. At $85.7 billion, its raise set the record this deal threatens to exceed, so Anthropic's offering would test how much capital the market will absorb at that scale.