Intel Stock Fell 9% in a Day After Soaring About 270% in the First Half. Buy the Dip Before July 23?

Intel fell 9% Wednesday amid a broader chip sector selloff, giving back a fraction of its 270% surge in the first half of 2026. The rally was fueled by momentum in its foundry business and reports of a preliminary agreement with Apple to manufacture chips. The stock now carries a $638 billion market cap despite the company remaining unprofitable, pricing in aggressive assumptions about its foundry turnaround.

The July 23 earnings report will be critical for validating that valuation. Investors need to see concrete evidence of external foundry revenue growth—chips Intel manufactures for other companies—and formal commitments from major customers beyond preliminary discussions. The Apple deal, if confirmed and detailed, would be the marquee win CEO Pat Gelsinger has been pursuing to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung in contract manufacturing.

Wednesday's drop reflects broader risk-off sentiment in semiconductors rather than Intel-specific news, but the timing amplifies pre-earnings volatility. With the stock having more than tripled year-to-date on expectations rather than results, the earnings call will need to deliver measurable progress or risk a sharper correction.