Intel Stock Has Moved an Average of 16% the Day After Its Last 3 Reports. Should You Buy Before the Next One?

INTC has moved an average of 16% the day after each of its last three earnings reports, and it beat forecasts every time. The next report lands October 29, and history says the swing could be violent in either direction.

The pattern is instructive. After April's report, INTC surged 24% on a revenue beat. After July's report, it fell 8% even though results were strong. Same beat-the-street outcome, opposite price reaction.

Interpretation: the headline beat is not what moves this stock. The source points to forward guidance as the real driver, with investors focused on sequential growth rates and capital spending outlooks. For the October 29 print, fourth-quarter guidance on supply growth and revenue trajectory looks like the deciding factor.

That framing matters because a clean quarterly beat has already failed to protect holders once. An 8% drop on strong July results shows that expectations, not results, set the bar.