Is It Too Late to Buy SpaceX?

SpaceX completed an $85.7 billion IPO and jumped 40% in early trading, pushing its market valuation to $2.5 trillion. Despite the strong debut, Morningstar pegs fair value at $62 per share, signaling significant overvaluation at current levels.

The company reported $18 billion in total revenue, with Starlink's connectivity business contributing $11.4 billion. However, SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss and faces $12 billion in capital expenditures tied to AI investments. The disparity between the IPO pop and fundamental metrics raises concerns about near-term sustainability at these prices.

Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate implies the stock would need to fall substantially from post-IPO levels to reach attractive entry points. The combination of heavy capital spending, ongoing losses, and a premium valuation complicates the risk-reward profile for new buyers chasing momentum.