Is Nebius Stock a Buy After Its 36% Pullback?

Nebius Group (NBIS) has dropped 36% from its September highs as investors question how AI infrastructure gets funded, yet the AI cloud company holds more than $40 billion in long-term commitments from customers including Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META).

The revenue ramp is steep. NBIS is expected to grow sales from $3.34 billion this year to $12.24 billion next year, roughly a 3.7x jump. At less than 4x next year's revenue, the stock trades at a valuation the pullback has compressed.

The cost side is heavy. NBIS needs $20-25 billion in annual capital expenditure, and shareholder dilution comes with that funding burden. Substantial customer prepayments offset part of the strain, giving the company a funding source tied directly to its contracted demand.

Interpretation: the 36% drawdown reflects the market pricing in financing risk rather than demand risk. The MSFT and META commitments anchor the demand case, while the capex figure defines the main threat to the thesis.