JPMorgan Chase Says That Bitcoin Will Outperform Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Over the Next 10 Years. Here's Why It Might Be Right

JPMorgan Chase's asset management division projects Bitcoin will return 10% annually over the next decade, outpacing every major traditional asset class in its forecast. The bank's long-term estimates put U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, bonds at 5.6%, and gold at 5.5%, leaving Bitcoin a 2.5-point edge over equities and roughly 4.4 to 4.5 points over bonds and gold.

JPMorgan's stated rationale centers on supply. The bank points to Bitcoin's slowing supply growth relative to global money expansion, and frames the asset as a store of value. In its view, scarcity gets tighter as the money supply keeps growing.

The call comes with a major caveat. JPMorgan still classifies Bitcoin as speculative, cites 55% volatility, and does not formally recommend buying it. That volatility figure is the context for the headline number: a 10% expected annual return carries a risk profile far wider than the other assets in the comparison.

Interpretation: the forecast is a long-horizon framework, not a trading signal. A 10% annualized return assumption says little about the path, and 55% volatility implies deep drawdowns can occur well within a decade-long window. The absence of a formal buy recommendation also means the research stops short of endorsing the asset.