Mark Your Calendar: SpaceX Could Be a Very Different Stock by Halloween

SpaceX's April 2025 IPO valued the company at $2.5 trillion with massive oversubscription, but fewer than 5% of shares currently trade publicly. That tight float faces a dramatic shift: staggered lockup expirations tied to earnings milestones will begin releasing insider and early investor shares, potentially doubling the public float by August 2026. The final wave of lockups expires October 31, 2026.

The setup creates a binary pressure point for the stock. Near-term, SpaceX could benefit from Nasdaq's fast-entry rule, which may provide institutional buying support in the coming months. But the math changes once locked-up shares hit the market. A doubling of available supply without proportional demand growth historically compresses valuations, particularly for richly priced growth names.

The lockup structure ties releases to earnings milestones, meaning strong operational performance could paradoxically accelerate share supply. Investors who bought into the IPO hype at a $2.5 trillion valuation now face the question of whether that price holds when supply doubles.