Morgan Stanley Set a $300 Price Target on Elon Musk's SpaceX Stock

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 price target on SpaceX (SPCX), implying more than 100% upside from current levels. The call centers on SpaceX's Starmind satellite constellation as orbital AI infrastructure, with the firm projecting revenue to surge from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $3.3 trillion by 2040.

The valuation hinges on execution of an unprecedented buildout. SpaceX currently trades at 94 times revenue, a premium that leaves little room for delays or disappointment. Jonas's bear case sits at $75, underscoring the binary nature of the thesis.

The $3.3 trillion revenue projection by 2040 would require SpaceX to scale from its current run rate to roughly Apple's and Microsoft's combined 2024 revenue within fifteen years. The Starmind constellation would need to monetize AI compute and data services at scale to justify the multiple.

Morgan Stanley's framework prices in transformational upside but also highlights the risk profile. At 94 times revenue, the market is already embedding significant growth expectations.