Nike Just Hit a 12-Year Low. Is the Bottom Near?

NKE dropped below $40 per share for the first time in 12 years, marking a 76% decline from its all-time high. The athletic apparel giant has been hammered by stagnant revenue, shrinking margins, and intensifying competition from rivals including ONON and DECK.

The company now faces a critical inflection point. Management expects gross margin expansion in coming quarters, supported by improving product mix and operational initiatives. The running shoe category—a core profit driver—is showing renewed momentum, and North American sales trends are beginning to stabilize after prolonged weakness.

NKE also stands to receive a $986 million benefit from tariff refunds, providing a near-term cash flow boost. The refund stems from prior duties paid on imports and represents a meaningful one-time tailwind.

The question for traders: whether the 76% drawdown has sufficiently priced in competitive and margin pressures, or if the turnaround thesis remains too fragile given market share losses to younger brands.