Nike’s $40 Floor Reflects Deep Value but Not Yet a Confirmed Recovery

Nike rallied 8% off its $40 decade-low following Q4 earnings, but the beat hinges on a one-time $986 million tariff refund rather than operational momentum. The stock now trades in a defined range between $40 support and $47-$52 resistance as CEO Elliott Hill executes his turnaround strategy.

The company posted wholesale growth and improved margin discipline, yet structural challenges persist. Greater China revenue has declined for eight consecutive quarters, and the forward P/E stands at 25.4x on flat guidance—a premium valuation for a company without near-term growth catalysts.

The technical setup is clear: $40 has held as a floor, marking a decade-low, but the stock needs to break through $47-$52 resistance to confirm a genuine recovery rather than a dead-cat bounce. Hill's turnaround execution will determine whether Nike can sustain momentum beyond the tariff windfall.