Nvidia Guided to $91 Billion. Wall Street Penciled In $92 Billion.

NVDA guided fiscal second-quarter revenue to $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, landing just short of Wall Street's $91.9 billion consensus. The company built in zero China data center revenue and expects gross margin to hold at 75%.

The $1 billion gap between guidance and estimates marks a departure from NVDA's recent pattern of blowout beats that have defined the stock over the past year. Revenue guidance implies near-doubling growth year-over-year, but the narrow margin leaves little room for surprise relative to the company's recent track record.

Two risks stand out: whether NVDA can maintain the 75% gross margin target as competition intensifies, and whether the company will beat its own guidance as it has in prior quarters. The tight spread between guidance and consensus removes a familiar cushion that has powered rallies after past earnings prints.