Oracle Stock Has Lost 60% Since Its Last Investor Day. Is It a Buy Before Wednesday?

ORCL has fallen 60% since its October 2025 investor day, even though the company has met most of its revenue and earnings targets, setting up a high-stakes read into Wednesday.

The pressure comes from the cost of AI data center buildout. ORCL expects $90-95 billion in capital expenditure this fiscal year, and free cash flow has turned negative at $23.7 billion. To fund the spending, ORCL raised debt 37% to $125 billion and issued $20 billion in new shares, a dilution hit on top of the leverage.

The operating story and the stock have diverged. Fiscal 2030 targets remain on track, yet the shares have been repriced on balance-sheet strain rather than missed guidance. Interpretation: the market is discounting execution on the build rather than demand, and punishing the funding gap between spending and cash generation.

Investor concern centers on two open questions: how ORCL will finance its 2027 expansion, and when free cash flow turns positive. Neither has a stated answer in the evidence, which keeps the debt and share-count overhang in focus.