Oracle Stock Is Down 64% in 10 Months. Is This the Best Buying Opportunity in AI -- or a Falling Knife?

Oracle shares have crashed 64% from their September peak, creating a high-risk, high-reward setup driven by AI infrastructure bets and concentrated customer exposure.

The company posted 21% revenue growth and amassed a $638 billion cloud backlog, fueled by aggressive data center expansion to support AI workloads. Oracle funded this buildout by taking on nearly $130 billion in debt, pushing its debt-to-equity ratio to 300%.

The core risk: roughly $300 billion of Oracle's backlog—nearly half—depends on a single customer, OpenAI. That customer reported $21 billion in losses against $13 billion in sales and has delayed its IPO, raising questions about its ability to fulfill long-term commitments. If OpenAI stumbles or renegotiates terms, Oracle's backlog could evaporate faster than revenue converts.

The valuation has compressed sharply following the 64% decline, but the debt load and customer concentration introduce binary outcomes. Oracle is betting billions on the AI infrastructure thesis at a time when its largest partner faces severe cash burn and uncertain public-market timing.