Pre-Market Preview — Friday, July 31, 2026
Overnight Pulse: Risk-on tone with mega-cap tech powering futures higher, gold and silver sold.
Asia & Europe
The Nikkei ripped +4.03% to 64,362, a blowout session that leaves Tokyo as the standout globally — a mix of yen dynamics and follow-through from US tech tape. Hang Seng added a more modest +0.30% to 25,884, restrained by ongoing mainland caution. Europe opened firm: DAX +1.32%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.96%, FTSE 100 +0.43%. Corporate flow across the pond was heavy — BP put UK North Sea assets up for sale as the CEO pushes an overhaul, Sainsbury's offloaded Argos for £120m, and Forvia sales fell less than feared despite BYD-related China drag. ADNOC buying tankers reflects Red Sea/Hormuz reshuffling — a bid under crude sits alongside these headlines.
US Futures Setup
Futures are broadly higher with a clear Nasdaq lean. ES 7,509 (+0.49%), NQ 28,570.5 (+1.18%), YM 52,666 (+0.55%), RTY 2,969.2 (+0.50%). The Nasdaq's ~70bp premium to the S&P tells you where the flow is — semis and mega-cap tech carrying the tape. Crude firm with WTI $84.12 (+0.63%) and Brent $87.52 (+0.74%). Precious metals under pressure: gold $4,109.3 (-1.23%), silver $58.15 (-1.47%) — the classic risk-on rotation out of defensives. Bitcoin $63,750, -0.9% — crypto not joining the equity party.
Names to Watch
- ▸$AMZN — indicated +13.07% at $266.56 on thin pre-open volume; a move of this magnitude ahead of the cash open can compress or extend once real liquidity arrives. Anchor name of the session.
- ▸$AAPL — indicated -7.27% at $309.40, sharply divergent from the tape. Watch the leasing program narrative flagged in overnight headlines.
- ▸$AMD — +4.13% at $505.44, riding the AI memory shortage theme circulating pre-bell.
- ▸$GOOGL — +2.15%, with Berkshire "next Apple?" chatter making the rounds.
- ▸$COIN — -5.21% at $155.06, weighed by the New York suit against Kalshi alleging prediction markets are illegal gambling — regulatory read-through hits the whole complex.
The Setup
$SPY indicated $745.56 (+0.52%) vs. prior close $741.69. Key levels: $744 as first support (gap-fill zone from the pre-market print), $741.69 as the line separating gap-and-go from gap-and-fade, and $748–750 as upside magnet if AMZN holds its bid. Thesis: fade extreme single-name pre-market moves (AMZN, AAPL) into the first 30 minutes — the index level looks well-supported, but the dispersion underneath is where the money is. Let the 9:45 print set the tone before pressing.
Yesterday's Core PCE landed at 3.29% YoY — sticky, but the tape has clearly moved past it.