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Pre-Market Preview — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

By · Independent market intelligence from Sunday Night Futures LLC

Overnight Pulse: Risk-on tape with a crude shock — equity futures bid across the board, oil down hard, gold soft.

Asia & Europe

A split overnight session. The Nikkei added 0.5% to 65,856 and Europe leaned green — the DAX +0.74% to 26,329, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.61%, FTSE 100 +0.48% — after Germany's Ifo business sentiment beat expectations and Q2 GDP was revised higher, reinforcing the European growth-momentum narrative. The outlier: Hang Seng dumped 1.92% to 25,511, a notable disconnect from the broader risk-on tone that bears watching as it often front-runs US tech sentiment. The read-through: European macro is quietly firming, but China-adjacent tape is fragile, and the crude collapse (more below) is the dominant cross-asset story running into the US open.

US Futures Setup

Futures are firmly higher, led by tech. ES 7,703.75 (+0.44%), NQ 29,371.75 (+0.91%), YM 53,725 (+0.44%), RTY 3,019.9 (+0.61%). The Nasdaq is doing the heavy lifting — semis are bid and the AI complex is running into tomorrow's Nvidia-adjacent narrative. The energy complex is the outlier: WTI -3.13% to $82.35, Brent -2.79% to $88.01, with Japan opting against a September/October SPR release adding to the demand-side unease. Gold is fractionally soft at $4,689; Silver -1.08%. Bitcoin holds $79,292, +1.78%.

Names to Watch

  • ▸$AMD — +3.21% pre-market to $471.50 on thin pre-open volume; leading the semi bid ahead of Nvidia's print tomorrow.
  • ▸$NVDA — +1.38% to $211.35, front-running its own earnings; positioning risk is high into the number.
  • ▸$TSM (ADR) — flagged in the tape as an Nvidia-earnings beneficiary; watch for sympathy flows.
  • ▸$USO — -3.06% to $128.24, tracking the crude break; energy names (XLE, XOM, CVX) likely open heavy.
  • ▸$META — +1.11% to $565, quietly outperforming mega-cap peers; $AAPL and $MSFT are red, so leadership is narrow.

Pre-open prints on light volume can fade at the cash open — size accordingly.

The Setup

$SPY 767.31, +0.50% pre-market. Prior close 763.47.

  • ▸Resistance: 768–770 (round-number magnet, extension of the futures gap).
  • ▸Pivot: 763.47 (prior close) — the line dividing gap-and-go from gap-and-fade.
  • ▸Support: 760, then 757.

Thesis: Gap-up on narrow mega-cap tech leadership with energy dragging — a classic dispersion open. Fade the first 15-minute high in $XLE, lean long $SMH/$QQQ pullbacks toward the VWAP if 763.47 holds on $SPY. Loss of 763.47 in the first hour flips the bias, and with Nvidia on deck tomorrow, expect intraday chop as books de-risk into the print.

Sunday Night Futures — for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

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