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Pre-Market Update — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

By · Independent market intelligence from Sunday Night Futures LLC

Pre-Market Pulse: Risk-on tape led by AI and cyclicals, with crude tanking and precious metals ripping — a textbook "growth over inflation-hedge equity" morning.

Overnight Action

US futures are bid across the board. $ES=F trades 7655.25 (+0.35%), $NQ=F leads at 29218.75 (+1.13%), and $YM=F is the standout at 54016 (+1.28%). $RTY=F adds +0.51%, confirming breadth. Europe is firm — the DAX surged +2.24% to 26203.38, EURO STOXX 50 +0.79%, FTSE +0.27%. Asia was mixed: Nikkei +0.32%, Hang Seng -0.12%. The commodity split is dramatic — WTI $CL=F -3% to $77.93 on Goldman's $80-90 Brent range call, while gold +1.1% and silver ripping +3.54%.

Movers Before the Bell

$AMD +4.25% at $505.25 is the marquee name, riding the AI infrastructure bid alongside Jensen Huang's headlines on open-weight models and a $7.9T semi TAM narrative. $NVDA +1.70% to $210.18 echoes the theme. On the other side, mega-cap tech is bifurcated: $MSFT -2.06%, $AMZN -2.19%, $META -1.71%, and $GOOGL -1.15% all soft, suggesting rotation *within* tech rather than a broad AI trade — dollars are flowing to semis over hyperscalers. $TSLA +0.86% at $324.86 firm ahead of the SpaceX Q2 print. $USO -2.55% tracks the crude break. Note these are pre-open prints on thin liquidity — the $AMD gap and the mega-cap fades can compress fast once the cash tape opens.

Still Ahead Today

SpaceX Q2 results land today per overnight coverage, with the bigger event flagged for Aug. 6 — watch $TSLA sentiment spillover. No high-impact US econ prints on the tape this morning; the most recent authoritative reading remains the July 30 Core PCE at 3.29% YoY, which continues to frame the "overstimulated economy" bond-market narrative dominating Reuters overnight.

Game Plan

$SPY reference 760.33 (+0.35% pre-market from 757.67).

  • ▸Resistance: 762 — prior-week supply, first target on gap-and-go.
  • ▸Pivot: 758 — Monday's close; loss of this rejects the gap.
  • ▸Support: 755 — where the AI-led narrative needs to hold to keep dip-buyers engaged.

Trade idea: Fade strength in mega-cap software ($MSFT, $AMZN) against long semis ($AMD, $NVDA) — the tape is already voting for that pair. If $SPY reclaims 762 with $QQQ (ref 707.84) holding above 706, press the long side into the European close.

Sunday Night Futures — for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

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