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Pre-Market Update — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

By · Independent market intelligence from Sunday Night Futures LLC

Pre-Market Pulse: Risk-on into the open, with tech leading, crude cratering on Iran-war headlines, and small-caps quietly bid.

Overnight Action

Asia finished mixed — the Nikkei added +0.5% to 65,856 while Hang Seng slumped -1.92% to 25,511. Europe is firm across the board: DAX +0.58%, FTSE +0.44%, Euro STOXX 50 +0.42%, with German Ifo business sentiment beating expectations and Q2 GDP confirming the momentum. US futures are green and broadening — $ES +0.36%, $NQ +0.77%, $YM +0.38%, $RTY +0.51%. The standout is crude: $CL -3.02% to $82.44, $BZ -2.81% to $88, as Reuters flags "almost half of global oil flows from war zones" six months into the Iran conflict — a supply-risk headline the tape is fading, not chasing.

Movers Before the Bell

  • ▸$AMD +3.14% to $471.75 — leading semis higher alongside a broad AI-complex bid; watch for follow-through given thin pre-open volume.
  • ▸$NVDA +1.35% to $211.20 — bid ahead of tomorrow's print, with sell-side chatter that a "historic quarter" spills into $TSM. $BRCM sentiment is softer on reports Alphabet is sourcing chips from Marvell too.
  • ▸$QQQ +0.95% / $SPY +0.49% — Nasdaq leadership is clean, mega-cap tech doing the work.
  • ▸$MSFT -0.58% to $484.50 and $AAPL -0.16% — the two laggards in an otherwise green mega-cap tape; no fresh catalyst, just rotation.
  • ▸$USO -3.16% — tracking the crude flush; energy names likely open heavy.
  • ▸$TSLA +0.67%, $META +0.88%, $GOOGL +0.55% — participating, not leading.

Caveat the size of any of these moves — pre-open books are thin and the 9:30 print will reprice fast.

Still Ahead Today

$NVDA reports tomorrow after the close — today's tape is largely a positioning exercise into that number, with $TSM read-through already being priced. No US high-impact economic releases on the docket for today's session. Fed speaker calendar is quiet at time of writing.

Game Plan

$SPY reference: pre-market $767.19, prior close $763.47.

  • ▸Resistance: $768 (overnight high zone) → $770 psychological.
  • ▸Pivot: $763.50 (yesterday's close) — bulls need to hold this on any early fade.
  • ▸Support: $760 round number, then $757.

Trade idea: Long-bias above $763.50 with tech leadership intact; fade strength into $770 if breadth doesn't confirm. Crude weakness is the wildcard — if $CL bounces off $82, energy shorts get squeezed and the rotation narrative shifts fast.

Sunday Night Futures — for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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