Pre-Market Update — Friday, September 25, 2026
Pre-Market Pulse: Risk-on tape with a bid under tech and metals, but crude is bleeding hard and Hong Kong closed weak — mixed signals under a green surface.
The 8:30 Print
Durable Goods Orders hit the tape at 8:30 ET, but the official print has not yet crossed verified channels. Futures leaked marginally in the minutes after: $ES=F trimmed from +0.28% to +0.26%, $NQ=F faded from +0.53% to +0.42%, $GC=F pulled back from +1.07% to +0.92%, and crude extended lower ($CL=F from -1.87% to -2.18%). Directionally, the reaction is a modest de-risk — not a rejection. We'll update once the headline number is in hand; refrain from calling it hot or cold until then.
Overnight Action
Asia was split: Nikkei 225 ripped +1.3% to 66,364, while Hang Seng dropped -1.3% to 24,510 — the China/Japan divergence widening again. Europe is flattish-to-firm: DAX +0.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.71%, FTSE 100 unchanged. US futures point higher across the board — $ES=F +0.26%, $NQ=F +0.42%, $YM=F +0.26%, $RTY=F +0.26%. The standout story is energy: WTI -2.18% to $92.55, Brent -1.87% to $98.35, pressured by reports of Saudi export surge and Gulf of Oman transfer congestion. Gold +0.92% to $4,337, silver +1.8% — the debasement trade remains very much alive.
Movers Before the Bell
- ▸$AMD +1.71% pre-market to $640.22 — trading well above the $614 level flagged in this morning's skeptical Motley Fool piece questioning valuation post-trillion-dollar cap. Bulls dismissing the note.
- ▸$META -0.8% to $771.90 — the lone mega-cap laggard, no clear catalyst; watch for continuation vs. dip-buy at the open.
- ▸$TSLA +1.03% to $381.94 — riding broader risk-on and semi strength.
- ▸$USO -2.5% to $149.23 — tracking the crude collapse; energy complex a clear short-tape setup on any bounce failure.
- ▸$GLD +0.77% to $395.06 — new highs in the making as gold breaches $4,337; miners and silver names ($SI=F +1.8%) worth screening.
On thin pre-open volume, size these moves with a grain of salt — the 9:30 cash open will re-price.
Still Ahead Today
The Durable Goods release remains the day's key US data point pending verification — watch for revision headlines and any core capex reads through the morning. No confirmed Fed speakers or after-the-bell earnings of note in today's payload.
Game Plan
$SPY last $770.43 (+0.4%). Levels to trade:
- ▸Resistance: $772 — measured extension of the overnight drift.
- ▸Pivot: $770 — hold above keeps bulls in control.
- ▸Support: $767.18 — prior close; loss opens $765.
Idea: Fade energy strength ($USO bounces into $150.50), stay long metals ($GLD, $SI=F) on pullbacks. Let $SPY confirm $770 hold before adding index longs.
Sunday Night Futures — for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.