Prediction: SpaceX Will Reach This Price in July (Hint: It's Going to Plummet)

SpaceX shares opened at $150 in the largest IPO in history and surged to $225.64 before pulling back. The Motley Fool now warns that a sharp reversal to $150—erasing the entire post-IPO gain—could arrive when the company reports Q2 earnings in late July or early August.

The catalyst: insider lock-up expirations coinciding with the earnings release. The analyst projects that approximately 30% of the 273 million shares eligible for sale will hit the market, creating significant selling pressure. That volume represents roughly 82 million shares that insiders could offload once restrictions lift.

The $150 price target isn't the floor. The Motley Fool cautions that subsequent lock-up tranches expiring in later periods pose additional downside risk as more insider shares become tradable. The firm frames this as a predictable post-IPO pattern, where early euphoria gives way to supply-driven weakness once founders, employees, and early investors gain liquidity.

SpaceX currently trades well above its $150 IPO price, leaving room for the forecasted 33% decline from the $225.64 peak.