Prediction: TSMC Stock Is Going to $1,200 by 2030

TSM is guiding to a sharp Q4 acceleration: management expects 58% year-over-year revenue growth, up from the 41% revenue growth it posted in Q3, when results beat expectations. AI chip demand drove the beat, and margins expanded alongside the top-line surge.

The jump from 41% to 58% growth is the key number here. It points to demand building quarter over quarter rather than fading, which is the pattern bulls need to defend a premium valuation.

The long-term case rests on one analyst projection: TSM earnings per share reaching $60.98 by 2030. Apply a 20x earnings multiple to that figure and you get roughly $1,200 per share, nearly 3x the current price. That implies the stock's current level is roughly one-third of the 2030 target.

Interpretation: the $1,200 target depends on two assumptions, that EPS compounds to $60.98 and that the market holds a 20x multiple five years out. The multiple is a modest-looking input, which places most of the risk on the earnings forecast. A miss on either side compresses the upside quickly.