Robinhood Made $173 Million From Prediction Markets Last Quarter, More Than From Crypto. Can That Carry the Stock?

HOOD's prediction market business generated $173 million in Q3 2026 revenue, up 6x year-over-year and now larger than the company's crypto segment. The event contracts line has overtaken a segment that is itself shrinking fast.

Crypto revenue fell 55% in the quarter, so prediction markets did real work filling the gap. Interpretation: the mix shift suggests HOOD's earnings power is moving away from crypto trading volumes and toward a newer, faster-growing product.

The article frames the growth runway as large. It notes prediction markets could reach $1 billion or more in annual revenue. At the $173 million quarterly figure, that implies the business would need to sustain or expand its current pace, though the source offers no timeline for reaching that level.

The risk is regulatory. The article describes the industry as operating in a "Wild West" phase, with potential for future disruption. Interpretation: a business scaling this quickly under unsettled rules carries headline risk that could hit the revenue line abruptly, which complicates any valuation built on extrapolating the 6x growth rate.

The core question the article poses is whether prediction markets can carry HOOD while crypto slumps. One quarter of data shows they can offset the decline, but not yet whether the growth is durable.