Rocket Lab Is Down 57% From Its Peak While Analysts See 49% Upside. Who Has It Right?

Rocket Lab shares have dropped 57% from their all-time high of $151, yet Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target of $111.31—implying 49% upside from current levels. The gap between price action and Street consensus highlights the tension between near-term profitability concerns and the company's accelerating revenue trajectory.

The bull case rests on concrete momentum: Rocket Lab reported 64% revenue growth to $200 million in Q1 2026, secured a record 31 launch contracts for the quarter, and holds a $2.2 billion backlog. The U.S. Space Force recently awarded the company contracts worth $663 million, underscoring government demand for its launch services.

The bear case is equally clear. Rocket Lab posted a $45 million net loss in Q1 and trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 53—a premium valuation for an unprofitable business. That multiple leaves little room for execution stumbles and makes the stock vulnerable to broader risk-off moves in growth names.