Sandisk Stock Has Surged More Than 2,000% in a Year. History Suggests This Is Where the Stock Could Be in 2028

SNDK has rallied more than 2,300% over the past year as NAND flash memory prices surge on AI data center demand. The stock now trades with momentum driven by a structural supply-demand imbalance that analysts expect to persist through the end of the decade.

NAND flash supply is projected to remain constrained through 2028, while AI servers are forecast to account for 51% of total NAND flash demand by 2027. That shift underpins analyst expectations for Sandisk's earnings to grow 20% in fiscal 2028.

Applying a 20x earnings multiple to those projected fiscal 2028 results implies a potential price target of $5,110 per share, representing a roughly 5x gain from current levels. The valuation framework assumes the company captures its proportional share of the AI-driven memory expansion and maintains pricing power in a supply-constrained environment.

The thesis hinges on sustained data center capital expenditure cycles and semiconductor production constraints that keep memory pricing elevated. Any shift in capex priorities or faster-than-expected capacity additions would pressure both the earnings growth assumption and the multiple.