SpaceX Could Be Bigger Than China, According to Elon Musk

SpaceX filed an IPO prospectus claiming a $28.5 trillion total addressable market spanning space operations, Starlink connectivity, and AI ventures—a figure that dwarfs China's $20.8 trillion GDP. The filing marks the first concrete step toward public markets for Elon Musk's aerospace giant.

The projection represents a 152,300% expansion from SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue last year. Musk provided no timeline for reaching the $28.5 trillion TAM, leaving analysts and potential investors without a roadmap to evaluate the claim's credibility.

The IPO filing follows years of speculation about SpaceX's path to public markets. The company has historically relied on private funding rounds, most recently valued at over $200 billion in secondary transactions. Public markets would provide liquidity for early investors and employees while funding the capital-intensive Starship development program and Starlink's global buildout.

The absence of a timeline in the prospectus raises fundamental questions about deal structure and valuation methodology. Without specified milestones, institutional buyers face difficulty modeling cash flows or assessing execution risk across three distinct business verticals.