SpaceX Faces Key Price Warning as Analyst Flags 45% Downside Risk

Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum set a $75 price target on SpaceX (SPCX), warning of 45% downside from current trading levels. The bearish call comes as the company grapples with capital expenditures running at 2.4 times revenue and a $542 million operating loss in its space segment.

Thum flagged customer concentration as a critical risk, with 19.5% of revenue tied to a single AI customer. The analyst also pointed to valuation pressure, citing an 86 price-to-sales ratio that dwarfs traditional aerospace comparables. Upcoming insider lock-up expirations add near-term technical risk, potentially flooding the market with shares as early stakeholders gain liquidity.

The downgrade arrives as SpaceX navigates the expensive transition from launch provider to integrated space infrastructure operator. The $75 target implies Thum sees limited runway for the current valuation to hold absent dramatic improvements in profitability or customer diversification.