SpaceX Had The Best IPO In History—Now Comes The Hard Part

SpaceX (SPCX) priced the largest IPO in history at $135 and rocketed to $225 before falling 9% to $174. The drop came as the company announced a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding tool, structured as a stock deal, and outlined plans for a $20 billion bond sale.

The equity faces a constrained float—only 5% of shares are currently trading, with lockups set to expire in December 2026. That makes the stock vulnerable to sharp moves on limited volume. Management has flagged Q2 earnings in September as a near-term catalyst, when supply concerns may intensify alongside the bond offering.

Despite strong fundamentals in the underlying space launch and satellite business, SPCX is trading on optionality rather than verified earnings, according to the source. The combination of a leveraged balance sheet from the pending bond issuance, dilution from the stock-financed Cursor deal, and the upcoming lockup expiration creates a complex setup for momentum traders who piled in post-IPO.