SpaceX Has Climbed 15% From Its IPO Price. Here’s Where History Says It Will Be After 1 Year.

SpaceX (SPCX) trades 15% above its $135 IPO price four months after completing the largest IPO ever, but historical precedent from major IPOs points to a possible double-digit decline within its first year of trading.

The offering raised over $85 billion and carried a trillion-dollar valuation. SPCX initially surged 50% from the offering price, meaning the stock has already surrendered a large share of its debut pop. At 15% above $135, the shares sit near $155 by simple arithmetic.

The bull case rests on operations. The company is delivering strong growth in its Starlink connectivity business and making progress with its Starship rocket program. Those are the two fundamental pillars holding the valuation up.

The bear case rests on pattern. Historical analysis of major IPOs suggests big offerings tend to give back ground during year one. Interpretation: a trillion-dollar valuation leaves little room for execution misses, so any Starship setback or Starlink growth slowdown could accelerate a decline the base rates already imply.

The 50% peak-to-current retreat in gains also shows how quickly early momentum faded, which fits the historical pattern the analysis describes.