SpaceX Just Delivered a Monster Quarter, but the Stock Is Still Down 38% From Its High. The Reasons Are Obvious.

SpaceX (SPCX) posted a blowout third quarter, yet the stock sits 38% below its June peak of $226, trading near $140. Revenue grew 161% year over year, and the company booked $2.8 billion in operating profit.

Growth came from two engines. Starlink revenue rose 69% year over year, while the Super Intelligence division surged 830%. Those are the figures bulls point to when arguing the sell-off overshoots fundamentals.

Bears have three specific counterpoints. First, IPO lockup expirations have added supply to the float, a technical overhang independent of earnings quality. Second, valuation remains stretched at 39x price-to-sales, leaving little room for execution slips. Third, capital expenditures hit $19.6 billion in Q3, far exceeding quarterly revenue and clouding the path to free cash flow despite the operating profit.

Interpretation: the market appears to be pricing cash burn and share supply rather than reported growth. A company spending more on capex than it earns in revenue can post an operating profit and still drain cash, which helps explain why record results did not stop the slide.