SpaceX Lockup Countdown: When Shares May Become Safer to Buy

SpaceX priced its June 12, 2026 IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, then surged 67% to $225 on just 5% public float. The company deployed a 16-tranche lockup structure releasing shares over 12 months, creating a series of pressure points for traders tracking supply dynamics.

Major unlock dates land in late July/August, late September, October 31, and December 8, 2026. Each window will inject shares into a market currently squeezed by limited supply. Insider selling is expected as employees face tax liabilities on vested equity and seek portfolio diversification after years of illiquidity.

Two countervailing forces may buffer downside: index inclusion will create mechanical buying demand, and institutional managers who missed the IPO will look to establish positions. The setup favors disciplined accumulation during unlock volatility over chasing the initial 67% pop, which reflected artificial scarcity rather than fundamental revaluation.

The 16-tranche structure is unusual—most lockups feature one or two major expiration dates—and extends selling pressure across the full year post-IPO.