SpaceX Stock Is Down 23% From Its Post-IPO High. History Says This Will Happen Next. (Hint: It's a Big Move.)

SpaceX stock has dropped 23% from its post-IPO peak of $202 to $156, and historical data suggests more pain ahead. An analysis of the 15 largest IPOs since 2006 reveals these mega-offerings typically fall 50% from their IPO price within the first year and underperform the S&P 500 by a median of 129 percentage points.

The valuation picture compounds the bearish case. SpaceX currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 104—nearly double the most expensive stock in the S&P 500. If the company follows the historical pattern of large IPOs, the current $156 level could mark a waypoint rather than a bottom.

The Motley Fool analysis points to a consistent pattern: size matters in IPO underperformance. The largest offerings face unique headwinds in their first year of public trading, with the median 129-percentage-point lag versus the broader market representing significant opportunity cost for investors who bought near the debut.