Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

The S&P 500 dropped 1.21% Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled potential rate hikes in 2026, with the median official projecting rates at 3.8% by year-end. Despite the selloff, Polymarket traders are pricing in a 98% probability of a higher open Thursday, with index futures pointing to a rebound.

The hawkish Fed stance triggered the Wednesday decline, as policymakers pushed back against market expectations for aggressive easing. The 3.8% rate forecast for 2026 suggests a slower path to lower borrowing costs than investors had anticipated. However, overnight strength in Asian markets and resilient U.S. economic data are supporting futures ahead of the Thursday session.

Thursday's calendar brings earnings from Accenture and Kroger, along with weekly jobless claims data. The claims report will be scrutinized for signs of labor market softening that might influence the Fed's rate trajectory. Asian market strength overnight is providing a tailwind, with futures already pricing in most of the recovery Polymarket traders expect.