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Sunday Night Brief — Sunday, May 17, 2026

By · Independent market intelligence from Sunday Night Futures LLC

May 17, 2026 | 6:00 PM ET *Sunday Night Futures — The Week Starts Here*

THE WEEKEND IN 60 SECONDS

Quiet weekend on the headline front with no major geopolitical flares or Fed surprises. Markets closed Friday with tech showing divergence — $MSFT ripped 1.85% while $NVDA and $AMD sold off hard on what looks like rotation out of semis into software. $TSLA dropping 2.71% on heavy volume suggests the risk-off tone hasn't fully cleared.

FUTURES OPEN

Futures data unavailable at time of publication — check live levels at 6:00 PM ET.

Friday's close puts $SPY at $739.17 and $QQQ at $708.93, both fading into the weekend. If $ES opens below 5870 (SPY equivalent ~$737), bears have immediate control and we're likely testing last week's lows. Bulls need to defend 5850 and reclaim 5900 by Monday's close to keep the uptrend intact. Watch the first 30-minute candle — a gap-fill and hold is constructive; a gap-fill and rejection sets up a red Monday.

CRYPTO PULSE

Crypto data unavailable at publication time.

With $COIN getting smoked 4.96% Friday, the correlation trade is flashing caution. If BTC is sitting below $68K at the time you're reading this, risk appetite is weak and tech will feel it. If BTC reclaimed $70K over the weekend, that's a green light for momentum names. Crypto leads — pay attention.

THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

  • ▸Monday 5/18: Empire State Manufacturing (8:30 AM ET)
  • ▸Tuesday 5/19: Housing Starts, Building Permits (8:30 AM ET)
  • ▸Wednesday 5/20: FOMC Minutes from May meeting (2:00 PM ET) — *this is the week's main event*
  • ▸Thursday 5/21: Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Fed's Waller speaks (1:00 PM ET)
  • ▸Friday 5/22: S&P Global PMIs (9:45 AM ET)

FOMC Minutes Wednesday will set the tone. Markets are hunting for any hint of September cut timing.

KEY LEVELS FOR THE WEEK

$SPY: Support $732 / $725 | Resistance $742 / $750 $QQQ: Support $700 / $690 | Resistance $715 / $725

Individual Names:

  • ▸$NVDA — $220 is the line. Loses that, $210 comes fast. Reclaims $230, squeeze resumes.
  • ▸$TSLA — Watching $410 support. Breaks and it's a flush to $385. Above $435, bulls back in control.
  • ▸$AMD — $415 must hold or semi weakness accelerates. $440 is the breakout trigger.

THE SETUP

We like $MSFT long into Wednesday's FOMC Minutes. Friday's 1.85% move on rotation out of semis shows money isn't leaving tech — it's finding safer tech homes. Entry zone: $418-422. Target: $435. Invalidation: Close below $412. The risk/reward is clean here if minutes come dovish. Cloud + AI narrative still intact, and it's trading like a flight-to-quality within the sector.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • ▸FOMC Minutes tone on Wednesday — hawkish hold or dovish lean? This determines whether we break out or break down.
  • ▸Semiconductor price action — if $NVDA and $AMD can't find a bid by midweek, the Nasdaq is vulnerable to a 3-5% pullback.
  • ▸$VIX behavior — closed Friday around 14. A spike above 18 this week means sell the rips, not buy the dips.

Futures open in minutes. Trade the levels, not the feelings.

— Sunday Night Futures sundaynightfutures.com

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