The SpaceX Sell-Off May Be More Than a Market Overreaction

SpaceX shares have plunged 31.5% following the company's record $85 billion IPO, driven by a sharp strategic pivot and mounting debt concerns. The aerospace giant issued $20 billion in unsecured debt shortly after going public and acquired AI coding platform Anysphere for $60 billion, signaling a fundamental shift from its core aerospace business toward AI infrastructure.

The company's valuation metrics flash warning signs. SpaceX now trades at 71 times enterprise value to EBITDA, while management projections show net debt ballooning to $400 billion by 2031. Core Starlink margins are compressing as the satellite internet service expands into lower-margin emerging markets, pressuring the unit that has been a key revenue driver.

The Anysphere acquisition and concurrent debt raise represent significant shareholder dilution at a critical juncture. The company is executing a high-stakes pivot into AI while its established business faces margin headwinds, creating layered execution risk against an already stretched valuation.