Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.75% on Monday, marking its highest level since January 2025. Rising oil prices fueled the move, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in response to persistent inflation pressures.

The selloff in Treasuries reflects a sharp repricing of Fed policy expectations. Higher crude prices typically feed through to headline inflation, complicating the central bank's efforts to bring price growth back to its 2% target. The yield move signals traders are scaling back bets on near-term rate cuts and positioning for a more hawkish Fed stance.

The January 2025 reference point underscores how quickly market sentiment has shifted. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and Monday's breach of 4.75% represents a meaningful technical and psychological threshold for rate traders.

Oil's rally—cited as the primary catalyst—has reignited inflation concerns across asset classes. Energy costs remain a key variable in the Fed's inflation calculus, and sustained strength in crude markets could keep Treasury yields elevated or push them higher.