UPS Stock Is Down 57% From Its Record. Is It a Buy Before Its Oct. 27 Report?

UPS is trading near $100, down 57% from its 2022 peak, ahead of its Q3 earnings report on Oct. 27. The slide has pushed the dividend yield to 6.5%.

The earnings picture explains the drawdown. Earnings have fallen 44% from 2022 to expected 2026 levels. UPS cut its Amazon (AMZN) volume and is pursuing a leaner network, a strategy the source says is already showing promise through improved margins. The stock now trades at a discount to the S&P 500.

The dividend is the central debate. Management expects $5.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026 to cover the payout, but the cushion is limited. Interpretation: at a 6.5% yield, the market is pricing real doubt that the payout stays comfortably funded, and any slip in cash generation would put that doubt in focus.

The Oct. 27 report is framed as a key test of whether UPS can meet its second-half forecasts. Interpretation: the margin gains from the Amazon volume reduction need to show up in reported numbers, not just management commentary, for the valuation discount to start closing.