Vistra Is the Quietest Big Winner of the AI Power Boom. Here's Why.

VST has dropped 38% from its 52-week high despite a setup that separates it from capped-return utilities: the independent power producer sells into wholesale markets and has locked in long-term power purchase agreements with AMZN and META to meet AI-driven data center load. U.S. data center electricity demand is forecast to double by 2027, and analysts project strong earnings growth for VST through 2028. The company's unregulated model lets it capture upside as hyperscalers compete for reliable capacity, a contrast to traditional utilities bound by rate-of-return frameworks. With AI infrastructure spend accelerating and grid constraints tightening, VST's contracted revenue base and merchant exposure position it to monetize scarcity pricing and long-duration commitments that competitors like NVDA indirectly drive through compute buildouts.